Structural-logical and cartographic modeling and analysis of the transformation of natural and social complexes of the Lower Dnieper region

The article analyses the natural and social processes that occurred after the liquidation of the Kakhovka Reservoir, highlights the general trend in the development of landscape and socio-geographical complexes and the predicted changes in their component and functional structure (outlines the contours of the short- and medium-term forecast scenario for the development of the study area, highlights the functions of the Lower Dnipro region in the period up to 1955-2024). Five spatial and temporal periods of transformation of the territory are distinguished: river (before 1955) – 1st hyper-transformation (1955 – 1958) – reservoir (1958-2023) – 2nd hyper-transformation (2023) – river (2023 – present). The elimination of the Kakhovka Reservoir led to catastrophic flooding (inundation) of the territory and the transformation of components of the modern floodplain landscapes of the Lower Dnipro, which is considered a factor in restoring a landscape structure close to the natural one within its boundaries. The objective analysis is summarized and deepened by the structural, logical and cartographic models of the Lower Dnipro region, which is positioned as the object of study. It is emphasized that the likely trend in the development of natural and social complexes of the outlined space, forecasting changes in its components ,will go in the direction of their self-organization and meeting the basic needs of the population (optimization of the biota, restoration of agricultural, industrial, and recreational functions). The blowing up of the Kakhovka HPP, which provided fundamental social needs of Ukraine (the realities of energy and water supply, water regulation, transportation, environmental, and recreational functions), is positioned not only as an act of ecocide and a fact of threat, but also as a factor in strengthening control over the safety of other geotechnical systems of the Dnipro cascade and improving their monitoring. It is noted that, in general, both the situation on the left bank of Ukraine and the Lower Dnipro region in the hierarchy of national priorities are characterized by fundamental uncertainty.