Mathematical analysis of scrub typhus seasonal infection with re-scaled transmission rate considering Northeast India reported data from 2010 to 2022

Healthcare reporting methods have seen a common problem with actual incidence of scrub typhus cases in Northeast India that were reported during post rainy season. We propose a Host-Vector model, a first of its kind, with a significant modification in the disease infection transmission rate. Our work aims to investigate a mathematical model by Atangana-Baleanu fractal-fractional operator that has seasonal pattern incorporating 2010-2022 data. The existence-uniqueness property is investigated using the fixed point theory, and also Ulam-Hyers stability is performed. Based on Lagrange's interpolation polynomial in the numerical scheme, a numerical investigation for various values of the fractional parameters is presented. The numerical simulation and phase plane trajectories demonstrates excellent performance of the suggested model as the number of individuals who recover rises gradually after herd immunity threshold points and turning points. Furthermore, the information gathered here may be useful for enhancing spatiotemporally dynamic scrub typhus disease models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2025-03-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95548-z
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Viral Infections and Vectors
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.40

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article

Mathematical analysis of scrub typhus seasonal infection with re-scaled transmission rate considering Northeast India reported data from 2010 to 2022

Biplab Dhar, Mohammad Sajid
1 citations
Scientific Reports
Viral Infections and Vectors
1.40
article

Mathematical analysis of scrub typhus seasonal infection with re-scaled transmission rate considering Northeast India reported data from 2010 to 2022

Biplab Dhar, Mohammad Sajid
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Healthcare reporting methods have seen a common problem with actual incidence of scrub typhus cases in Northeast India that were reported during post rainy season. We propose a Host-Vector model, a first of its kind, with a significant modification in the disease infection transmission rate. Our work aims to investigate a mathematical model by Atangana-Baleanu fractal-fractional operator that has seasonal pattern incorporating 2010-2022 data. The existence-uniqueness property is investigated using the fixed point theory, and also Ulam-Hyers stability is performed. Based on Lagrange's interpolation polynomial in the numerical scheme, a numerical investigation for various values of the fractional parameters is presented. The numerical simulation and phase plane trajectories demonstrates excellent performance of the suggested model as the number of individuals who recover rises gradually after herd immunity threshold points and turning points. Furthermore, the information gathered here may be useful for enhancing spatiotemporally dynamic scrub typhus disease models.

Scientific ReportsVol. 15(1)
Qassim University (SA), University of Petroleum and Energy Studies (IN)
Qassim University
Zero hunger
Openalex Percentile: Top 22%
Viral Infections and Vectors
1.40
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Mathematical analysis of scrub typhus seasonal infection with re-scaled transmission rate considering Northeast India reported data from 2010 to 2022 — Biplab Dhar, Mohammad Sajid · Scientific Reports (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS