Global warming and sustainable aquaculture in Türkiye: the case of sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata)

Abstract This study examines the impact of global warming on the sustainable aquaculture production of sea bass and sea bream in Türkiye. Using daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1982 to 2020 at four selected locations-Antalya Bay, the Black Sea, İskenderun Bay, and İzmir-the study identifies significant warming trends. The annual SST increase rates were determined as 0.046 °C, 0.08 °C, 0.049 °C, and 0.053 °C, respectively. A notable rise in the number of days with SST values exceeding 30 °C was observed, especially in Antalya Bay (1.51 days/year, reaching 53 days in 2020) and İskenderun Bay (1.86 days/year, reaching 74 days in 2020). Projections for 2040, 2060, and 2080 were conducted using time series analysis with ARIMA models, forecasting increasing SST trends. Under the maximum SST scenario for 2080, the estimated number of days with temperatures above 30 °C is expected to reach 170 days in Antalya, 136 days in the Black Sea, 180 days in İskenderun, and 132 days in İzmir. However, in the Iskenderun and Antalya Bays of the Mediterranean, which carry the highest potential risk for aquaculture practices, a decrease of approximately 7.15% and 45% in the number of days exceeding 30 °C for Iskenderun and Antalya Bays, respectively, can be reasonably expected based on depth-dependent temperature variation rates. The findings highlight the necessity of adaptive strategies for sustainable aquaculture, including species selection, technological advancements, and farm relocation efforts.