Understanding land-use transitions in rural areas of the North Island, New Zealand from 1996 to 2018: an intensity analysis approach

Abstract Land-use change is a key feature of New Zealand's landscapes. Several national land-use assessments show a slowing conversion from pastoral land to exotic forest but did not take the local scale into account. To explore this, we applied intensity analysis to better understand spatial–temporal changes in land use over time in the rural landscapes of the North Island, New Zealand. Land-use maps from 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2018 were used to analyse land changes at three levels: time interval, category, and transition. Results show that most land-use transitions have been decelerating over those periods, and changes in the native forests were dormant. The gains of pastoral land and exotic forests were losses of shrubland during all the time intervals. Patterns of transition vary based on local cases and are primarily influenced by regional policies (e.g., greenhouse gasses emissions related legislations), and environmental conditions (e.g., erosion-prone areas). Furthermore, applying this approach provides insights into how deforestation occurs locally and how land managers influence land-use transitions.