Estimating future thresholds for the 15% eligibility criteria of the EU taxonomy with limited data availability

Abstract The EU Taxonomy Regulation requires, for the acquisition and ownership of buildings, to demonstrate that the asset’s primary energy demand (of buildings constructed before 2021) is within the top 15% of the national or regional building stock. Determining the top 15% energy performance of a building stock is challenging because data availability is generally poor. Furthermore, the threshold for this top range will shift with upcoming refurbishment efforts and higher energy efficiency standards. We tackle these issues by proposing a methodology for estimating 1) current thresholds based on more widely available data on energy performance certificates and 2) using existing scenarios to estimate future threshold values. Estimation of current thresholds for residential buildings yields a moderate fit and a threshold value for final energy demand of 74 kWh per square meter and year (or a conservative threshold of 70 kWh for primary energy demand), which is very close to the results reported by other scholars. Estimated future thresholds show a linear decline in final energy demand down to 20 to 45 kWh per square meter and year in 2045, depending on the applied scenario.