Global Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism – A Quantitative Assessment

Abstract While the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has a global impact by design, the scale of its “spillover effects” on other countries is seldom studied. This paper contributes to academic and policy discussions by using a recursive dynamic CGE model to assess quantitatively the impact of the CBAM on other countries, especially developing countries, and identify countries most vulnerable to its spillover effects. The simulation results suggest the CBAM widens the gap between developed and developing countries in terms of GDP and welfare. Thus, it may worsen the unequal income and welfare distributions between rich and poor economies and curb the capacity of low-income countries to decarbonize their economies. To ensure the low-carbon transition of advanced economies does not negatively or unfairly impact developing countries, international organizations should play a key role in identifying and addressing the cross-border spillover effects of climate policies, especially on the balances of payments and growth trajectories of vulnerable countries.