Regression-based machine learning models for nitrate and chloride prediction in surface water in a small agricultural sand plain sub-watershed in southwestern Ontario, Canada

Machine learning (ML) models have proven to be an efficient technique for better understanding and quantification of surface water quality, especially in agricultural watersheds where considerable anthropogenic activities occur. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations that can examine the application of different ML regression models in agricultural settings to predict the surface water quality using a group of input variables, including hydrological (e.g., surface flow), meteorological (e.g., precipitation), and field (e.g., crop cover) conditions. In this study, multiple ML regression models, including support vector machine (SVM) and regression trees (RT), were employed on a 2-year dataset collected from a sand plain agricultural sub-watershed in southwestern Ontario, Canada (i.e., Lower Whitemans Creek) to predict the nitrate and chloride concentrations in surface water at nine sampling sites within the sub-watershed. The prediction capabilities of these ML models were determined using a group of evaluation metrics including the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and root-mean squared error (RMSE). In general, the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model was the optimal algorithm to predict the nitrate and chloride concentrations in surface water (R 2 was 0.99 and 0.98 respectively for training and testing). According to the results of a feature importance analysis, it was found that the field conditions (specifically the location of sampling site (main channel or tributary site) and crop cover) were the most crucial model input variables for accurate predictions of the output variables. This study underscores that ML regression models can be implemented to effectively quantify the water quality properties of surface water in agricultural watersheds using easily measurable parameters. These models can assist decision makers in advancing successful actions and steps towards protecting the available surface water resources.