Slope Deformation Prediction Combining Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Fractional-Order Grey Model and K-Means Clustering

Slope deformation poses significant risks to infrastructure, ecosystems, and human safety, making early and accurate predictions essential for mitigating slope failures and landslides. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates a fractional-order grey model (FOGM) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to determine the optimal fractional order, thereby enhancing the model’s accuracy, even with limited and fluctuating data. Additionally, we employ a k-means clustering technique to account for both temporal and spatial variations in multi-point monitoring data, which improves the model’s ability to capture the relationships between monitoring points and increases prediction relevance. The model was validated using displacement data collected from 12 monitoring points on a slope located in Qinghai Province near the Yellow River, China. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the traditional statistical model and artificial neural networks, achieving a significantly higher coefficient of determination R2 up to 0.9998 for some monitoring points. Our findings highlight that the model maintains robust performance even when confronted with data of varying quality—a notable advantage over conventional approaches that typically struggle under such conditions. Overall, the proposed model offers a robust and data-efficient solution for slope deformation prediction, providing substantial potential for early warning systems and risk management.