Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence

China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and as a result, poses severe challenges both to human health and climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving carbon neutrality requires thorough analyses of mechanisms driving the coal sector’s transition. This study employs a structural model to investigate the transmission pathways through/by which the “dual carbon” goals influence the coal industry, using a policy text quantification approach to assess specific carbon reduction measures. Findings reveal that the impact of the “dual carbon” target on the coal industry operates through multiple pathways. Carbon reduction policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social and economic factors, energy-saving measures, and alternative energy development, all of which indirectly affect coal supply. Notably, the pathway from coal demand to coal supply shows a high path coefficient of 1.121, far surpassing the path coefficient from factor input to coal supply, measured at 0.169. This highlights coal demand as the pivotal intermediary variable in determining the “dual carbon” target’s impact on the coal industry. While current technologies and alternative energy sources have limited immediate effects on coal supply, they hold significant potential as transformative factors in the future.