Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Framework of “Risk-Association-Driver”: A Case Study of Panjin City

This study adopts the “Risk-Association-Driver” framework to construct a sustainable security evaluation framework from the three dimensions of ecosystem service value, ecological risk, and drivers, with the aim of providing recommendations for regional ecosystem function enhancement and ecological risk prevention and control and promoting regional sustainable development. Google Earth Engine was used to extract Panjin City’s land use change data from 2010 to 2023. Furthermore, this paper combines the Equivalent Factor Approach and the Ecological Risk Model to analyze the dynamic changes of ecosystem service value and ecological risk. The spatial and temporal correlations, spatial clustering patterns, and driving variables of ecological risks and ecosystem service values in the research area were explored using GeoDa tools and Geo-detectors. The investigation shows that (1) The ecological risk index showed a gradual declining trend, with an overall decrease of 8.44%, indicating that the regional ecological security issue had improved. From 2010 to 2023, the total value of ecosystem services in Panjin City continued to rise, increasing from 27.923 billion CNY to 30.488 billion CNY; (2) The value of ecosystem services per unit area and the ecological risk index has strong positive hierarchical correlations and some positive spatial correlations; and (3) Land use types and anthropogenic impact indices are important drivers of spatial variation in ecosystem service values and ecological risks in the study area. The framework and methodology of this paper help to understand ecosystem dynamics and identify potential risks, which is significant for promoting sustainable regional development.