Regulator Theory, Natural Hazards, and Climate Change

Climate change is increasing variability in environmental conditions and the frequency and severity of natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. In this paper, we use general systems theory to describe how disaster management systems are composed of four types of system regulators (aggregation, passive, error control, and anticipation) that are deployed to provide protection from natural hazards. We argue that climate change, by changing causal relationships in the environment and thereby reducing the predictability of related hazards and altering exposure to them, is likely to require that disaster management systems be restructured by changing the combinations of system regulators that are employed to prevent or mitigate disasters. This leads to the conclusion that one of the keys to developing effective policies to support adaptation to climate change and to promote sustainability hinges on understanding how disaster management systems can be interpreted as mechanisms for regulating exposure and vulnerability to minimise the threats from natural hazards. Consequently, developing methods for interpreting and modelling system regulators in disaster management systems is an important next step.