Investigating post-eruption amplified winter cooling in the Middle East and North Africa—unraveling ENSO and NAO dynamics

Abstract Following strong tropical volcanism, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region witnessed significant winter cooling, conventionally attributed to volcanically forced positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and direct volcanic effects. However, coexisting positive phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prompts that this enhanced winter cooling may stem from ENSO forcing rather than volcanic-induced NAO. To address this complexity, we analyzed ENSO-preconditioned volcanic sensitivity experiments. Our simulations assert that the post-eruption MENA amplified winter cooling is primarily driven by the subsequent positive NAO phase, diminishing the essentiality of El Niño-preconditioned eruptions for inducing forced NAO changes. These findings deepen our comprehension of volcanic-induced circulation impacts in MENA, providing valuable insights for model interpretation, and are useful for policy research on post-volcanic predictions.