Forecasting changes in the Earth’s climate system by instrumental measurements and paleodata in the phase-time region, consistent with changes in the barycentric motions of the SUN. Part 2

Subject of research is conditioned by the need to establish the root causes of climate change on the Earth and to predict changes in heliocosmic, climatic variables, natural disasters based on instrumental measurements and palaeodata. Purpose of research: application of the wavelet phase-time method of time series analysis to establish the strength of influence of the Sun’s barycentric motions on the variability of heliocosmic, climatic variables, natural disasters and fires, high-precision forecasting of variables in the phase-time domain for long horizons for hundreds of years by instrumental measurements and thousands of years by palaeodata. Methods and objects of research: wavelet phase method of analyses of time series of changes in heliocosmic and climatic variables, natural disasters and fires, curves of changes in climatic changes obtained by analyses of ice cores in the Antarctic and bottom sediments in the Atlantic. Main results of research. A method and algorithm for high-precision prediction of variables in the phase-time domain based on the use of wavelet transformation of one-dimensional plots of variable measurements over time into two-dimensional images over frequency (wavelet scale) and time with subsequent predictions of individual, selected frequency components of images of variables are obtained. It is assumed that at each frequency of the phase-frequency and time image the period of phase change in the prediction interval is equal to the average period of phase change in the observed time interval; at each selected frequency (wavelet scale) of the image section the coordinates of minima of the phase changing sawtooth in the observed time interval are estimated. The predicted variable curve is formed as the arithmetic mean of a set of predicted phase curves with opposite sign obtained for a set of selected frequencies in the image. Graphs of predicted changes in practically important heliocosmic, climatic variables, natural disasters, hurricanes, forest fires in Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Yugra, number and areas of fires in Irkutsk Oblast, changes in the level of the Caspian Sea and the Amur River, where catastrophic river spills are observed, changes in the intensity of the warm Gulf Stream current were obtained. Consistency plots of changes in selected groups of variables in the observed and predicted time intervals by instrumental measurements were obtained and plotted. Graphs of observed and predicted climatic variables, orbital changes of the Earth in time interval -422÷300 thousand years and coordinated changes of characteristic groups of variables have been obtained; it has been obtained that modern global warming, displayed on the graphs of coordinated changes of some groups of variables, is a natural continuation of climate changes in the past and it will gradually, within 10-12 thousand years, be replaced by glaciation with subsequent warming and cooling in cyclic mode, as it was in the historical past.