Decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from residential buildings in South Korea: Focusing on changes in household size

This study examines the key factors influencing residential energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea from 2015 to 2023, with a particular focus on the impact of household size changes. Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method, this research decomposes greenhouse emission variations into demographic, technological, and economic components. Data were sourced from the National Statistical Portal, the Korea Energy Agency's energy consumption and emissions reports, and regional statistical data on household composition. Unlike previous studies that primarily relied on average household size, this study employs a novel approach that categorizes energy consumption patterns by household size to capture the nonlinear effects of demographic shifts more precisely. The results reveal that the rapid increase in single- and two-person households was the dominant driver of rising greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for approximately 81 % of the total increase. However, technological advancements mitigated around 20 % of these emissions, partially offsetting the impact. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in designing targeted energy conservation and carbon reduction strategies that reflect changing household structures. By providing a refined analytical framework, this study contributes to advancing South Korea’s carbon neutrality goal for 2050 and informs future research on residential energy consumption dynamics. • Single- and two-person household growth drives greenhouse gas emissions. • A decomposition method captures energy consumption shifts from household size changes. • Policy proposals are presented to reduce household greenhouse gas emissions.