Water Resource Assessment and Management in Dalha Basalts Aquifer (SW Djibouti) Using Numerical Modeling

In the Republic of Djibouti (Horn of Africa), fractured volcanic aquifers serve as the primary water resource. The country’s climatic characteristics (arid climate, average rainfall of 140 mm/year, and absence of surface water) have led to intensive groundwater exploitation to meet increasing water demands. This study focuses on the Dalha basalts aquifer in the Dikhil region. The Dikhil region, located in the southwest of Djibouti and bordering Ethiopia, spans 7200 km2. Its population is estimated at 112,000 inhabitants. The Dalha aquifer is intensively exploited to supply the region and its capital, the city of Dikhil (35,000 inhabitants). The primary objective of this work is to assess the current resources of this aquifer using numerical modeling and its capacity to meet future water demands under the impact of climate change. The RCP 2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) was used to simulate the climate scenario up to 2100. Superficial recharge is estimated at 3.86 × 106 m3/year. The current wellfield abstraction amounts to 2.34 × 106 m3/year, accounting for 60% of the aquifer’s recharge. The simulation under RCP 2.6 indicates a declining trend in the water table. These findings highlight the fragile state of the Dalha aquifer, which is critical for the socioeconomic stability of the region. Given its current vulnerability, any increase in exploitation is unsustainable, despite the growing water demand in the Dikhil region. To tackle this challenge, we recommend conducting further studies to deepen the understanding of this system and implementing a real-time monitoring network to track aquifer changes.