Simulation of island ecotourism development based on SD and DPSIRM models: a case study of Amami-Oshima Island

Abstract Island ecotourism development seeks to balance environmental protection with socioeconomic growth, promoting sustainable practices that benefit both local ecosystems and communities, which is a priority in ecologically sensitive regions such as Amami-Oshima Island. This study identified key factors in ecotourism using an optimized Driver-Pressures-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) framework and integrated a System Dynamics (SD) model to develop a simulation system for island ecotourism development. The model was used to analyze the dynamic changes in ecotourism under various scenarios between 2010 and 2035. The results indicated that the Coordinated Development Model, which simultaneously enhanced tourism benefits and conserved natural resources, was the optimal strategy for achieving a win-win outcome. In contrast, the Socioeconomically Driven and Ecological Protection models revealed limitations in resource allocation: the former prioritized transportation infrastructure, resulting in insufficient tourism service provision, while the latter strictly limited development, thereby suppressing tourism and economic activity. This research deepens our understanding of complex dynamics in island ecotourism and reveals the effect of certain management outcomes through scenario simulations, offering policymakers effective support for informed decision-making.