Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century

Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century no longer favors college graduates and that further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers will likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.