Breeding Habitat Suitability Modeling to Inform Management Practices for the European Turtle Dove (Streptopelia turtur) in NE Greece

The European Turtle Dove (Streptopelia turtur) has experienced significant population declines across its European breeding range, primarily due to habitat loss. Our study aimed to provide a new reference for the conservation of Turtle Doves in Evros province, a biodiversity hotspot. We used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to assess Turtle Dove breeding habitat suitability and account for the area of suitable habitats that is not protected or have been affected by a recent mega-fire. The best performing model identified tree cover density, the percent cover of permanently irrigated land and heterogenous agricultural areas, proximity to non-irrigated agricultural land, and forest edge length as the most important predictors of habitat suitability, signifying the importance of an interplay between open and forested land. Our results indicate that 39% of the study area provides a suitable breeding habitat, with the majority located in central and southeastern regions. Conversely, irrigated agricultural areas in the northeast are unsuitable. We found that more than 60% of suitable habitats fall within the Natura 2000 network, underscoring the importance of protected areas for conservation. However, wildfires pose a major threat, with almost 25% of suitable habitats being affected by a recent mega-fire, highlighting the need for recovery in these areas. Our study provides a foundation for targeted habitat management and restoration efforts in NE Greece and contributes to the broader understanding of the species’ habitat requirements across its breeding range.