Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hippophae neurocarpa in China Using Biomod2 Modeling

Hippophae neurocarpa is a relatively new member of the Rhamnus genus that has various potential edible and medicinal values, but still needs to be further developed. To better develop H. neurocarpa, it is crucial to determine its current and future population distribution. This study utilized the “Biomod2” package in R to integrate five individual models and investigate the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of H. neurocarpa, as well as the key climatic factors influencing its distribution. The results indicated that, under the current scenario, the potential distribution of H. neurocarpa is mainly concentrated in the eastern parts of the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. In the future, its potential suitable habitats will undergo varying degrees of change: the area of medium/low suitability will decrease, while the area of high suitability will shift westward and increase. In the analysis of area changes, it was found that some potential suitable habitats in Sichuan and Shaanxi will directly transition from highly suitable to unsuitable areas. Key environmental variable analysis showed that temperature, particularly low temperature, is a crucial factor affecting the distribution of H. neurocarpa. Additionally, altitude also has a significant impact on its distribution. This study predicted the potential suitable habitats of H. neurocarpa, which will aid in its future development and provide reference for selecting regions suitable for its cultivation.