Modelling of obesity impact on COVID-19: Improved SEIR model

Obesity has emerged as a significant risk factor for severe outcomes in individuals with COVID-19. In this study, we present a predictive model that elucidates the intricate connection between obesity and COVID-19 mortality rates, as well as the incidence of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions for COVID-19 related Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Our model is grounded in nonlinear temporal dynamics, represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, which accounts for different disease states. The stability analysis of equilibrium states confirms the mathematical robustness of our model. Sensitivity analyses shed light on the relative importance of model parameters in shaping disease transmission and prevalence. These findings underscore the urgent need to raise awareness among the obese population about the critical association between obesity and COVID-19, and the imperative for targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 in this vulnerable population.