Achieving Carbon Peak Targets in an Efficient Manner: A Chinese Study

In recent years, China has made remarkable progress in achieving its carbon peak targets. However, the progress towards achieving carbon peak targets has varied significantly across the provinces and municipalities of China due to their different resource endowments and industrial structures. In order to better understand such heterogeneity issues and their implications, a model is developed in this study to predict the progress of achieving carbon peak across provinces and municipalities according to various influencing factors. This analysis incorporates an assessment of the most suitable scenarios for each region that result in lower carbon emissions, thus providing inputs for more tailored carbon management strategies. This study reveals that urbanization rate, GDP per capita, and population are critical factors influencing carbon emissions, whereas technological progress has a moderate impact. Meanwhile, the proportion of tertiary industry is negatively correlated with carbon emissions. Under normal scenarios, China can achieve its carbon peak target before 2030, while some provinces and municipalities can achieve their carbon peak targets ahead of schedule. Under certain scenarios, some provinces and municipalities in China will experience certain difficulties in achieving their carbon peaks before 2030. In addition, the choice of development goals presents a crucial factor that affects carbon emissions. The scientific and appropriate determination of development goals can effectively promote the realization of the carbon peak target. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a unified framework that integrates macro- and micro-level analyses, enabling a deeper understanding of regional disparities in carbon emissions. The results offer theoretical support and practical recommendations for formulating tailored carbon reduction policies, providing valuable insights for China and other countries to help address similar challenges in achieving sustainable development and climate goals.