Analysis of Cultivated Land Productivity in Southern China: Stability and Drivers

Owing to climate change and increasing resource competition, elucidating the control mechanism of cultivated land productivity stability is essential. Previous research has focused on anthropogenic or climatic factors individually, overlooking their combined effects; therefore, the “climate–anthropogenic” framework was constructed. Net primary productivity (NPP) was employed to measure the cultivated land productivity and investigate the impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on cultivated land productivity stability in Poyang Lake from 2001 to 2022. Results revealed that NPP increased but fluctuated significantly and was higher in southern Poyang Lake than in the north. The low spatial stability distribution fluctuation area was concentrated in the periphery of Poyang Lake, the periphery and riverbank comprised the middle and high fluctuation areas, and the Ganjiang River Delta exhibited high fluctuation. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the stability of cultivated land productivity was positively impacted by farmland and river proximity and average patch area and that fractal dimension was positively affected and negatively impacted by low farmland proximity and average annual precipitation. Stable cultivated land production and improved utilization efficiency requires irrigation and drainage system optimization and improved adaptability to climate change. Moreover, cultivated land fragmentation should be reduced, and the resilience of cultivated land to external disturbances should be enhanced.