Comparative analysis of wildfire simulation tools: Discrepancies in Rothermel model-based software under varying wind and slope conditions

With the advances in computers and the growth of science in modeling physical phenomena, wildfire simulation software has become an instrumental tool for governments, agencies, and researchers to tackle the growing challenge of wildfires. Various models have been developed using different methodologies, and different software platforms were created using these models. The Rothermel model is one of the most widely accepted and utilized models in simulation software among agencies. This study discusses the differences in numerical results from three widely used software programs that utilize the Rothermel fire propagation model as their foundation. First, each software will be introduced and explained, and their differences will be discussed. In the next step, multiple cases will be defined and simulated with identical inputs using each software. The effects of different slope and wind conditions on the results will be analyzed by designing four simple scenarios. Although it is acknowledged that numerous factors influence wildfire behavior, the analysis demonstrated that just these two factors were sufficient to reveal significant discrepancies among the software. The results of the simulations will be analyzed, and the software will be compared through a discussion. The results show that by increasing the complexity of the scenarios, the difference in results from each software increases. The differences in results between platforms with identical scenarios emphasize that researchers and decision-makers must recognize these variations and exercise extra caution when utilizing wildfire simulation tools for decision-making and operational management.