Forecasting of Rice Import Data: An Application of ARIMA Model

Forecasting the import and export of any agricultural product is crucial to making the best decisions for the policymakers and stakeholders of a country. Bangladesh is not beyond it. Many agricultural products like rice, lentils, and onions have great demand in Bangladesh. As a result, policymakers made decisions to import those agrarian products when necessary. This study has analyzed the milled rice import data of Bangladesh to select the best-fitted ARIMA model and to forecast for the upcoming ten years. This study has determined ARIMA (2, 1, 1) as the best-fitted model from a set of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on rice import data of Bangladesh from 1960 to 2022 and forecasted for the next ten years following the Box-Jenkins methodology.