Climate basis for planning regional actions for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation to climate change is seen as an economic task, but it is based on the climatic conditions of territories and their expected changes in the medium term. The purpose of this article is to identify relevant approaches to assessing climate risks based on research data and expert assessments, selecting relevant climate variables, and forecasting the expected (probable) level of climate risks using global climate models. The work uses general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis and scientific generalisation. The analysis of existing regulatory and legal documentation in the field of regional adaptation has been carried out, and the limitations of its requirements have been shown, primarily the emphasis on retrospective analysis of risks and a closed list of indicators characterising the level of their danger. One of the main tasks to be solved in the process of adaptation planning is to find a correspondence between risk and climatic variables that determine its probability of realisation and the level of danger. Approaches to determining the list of regional climatic variables, information about which is necessary for planning adaptation measures, within the framework of the climate or sectoral approach, using standard lists of climatic variables and indices, formed by the World Meteorological Organisation, or on the basis of expert consensus, are considered. It is shown that regional climate forecast is one of the main components in solving the problem of adaptation to climate change, and the methods of forecasting and improving the spatial accuracy of such a forecast (statistical and dynamic downscaling) are considered. The proposed methodological approaches are intended for use in the practice of planning regional adaptation measures, including in the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and in updating the Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).