Passenger Demand and Service Supply Imbalances in the Colombo Suburban Railway System: Findings of a Gap Analysis on Main and Puttalam Lines

An adequate supply of rail services in the Colombo suburban network is critical to meeting the needs of the current passenger clientele. Despite the increasing demand due to urbanisation and population growth, limited research has hitherto been undertaken on whether train services align with commuter needs, especially during peak hours. Using the Gap Analysis approach, this study examined the extent to which the provision of rail services met the demand of the current clientele in the Colombo suburban network. It focused specifically on the Main Line between Colombo Fort and Polgahawela, and on the Puttalam Line between Ragama and Chilaw. In this study, demand was estimated as revealed from ticket sales using the Origin-Destination (OD) Matrix, and supply was estimated based on the seating capacity of trains operated during peak hours. The stations with high and low demand were thereby identified analysing the patterns of passenger flows and sectional load factors. Even though the socio-economic benefits associated with increased railway mode share were found to be substantial, the outcomes of the study suggest that the potential to attract more passengers to the railway mode, especially on the Main Line, may be limited due to existing high load pressures. Alleviation of such pressures requires strategic interventions to reform the operating schedules and structures providing more express trains to stations with substantial demand and sections with high load factors while selectively removing stops at stations fetching lower demand. The alternative would be to augment the supply capacity, which will be highly capital-intensive.