Economic (financial) assessment of government actions to limit the spread of infection

Subject. The article deals with development of a methodology for choosing the optimal nature of government actions to limit the spread of dangerous infection in the country. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to devise a method for calculating the economic and financial results that entail certain government actions. Methods. The employed methodology is similar to economic entity’s actions valuation in making a decision to implement an investment project, where expected results are estimated. Positive results are estimated in the form of contingent income, costs and negative results are considered as expenses. Within the proposed method, human life as a whole and individual periods of a person's life are valued. Results. I developed a method to determine the most cost-effective ways to carry out anti-epidemic measures. The article considers seven possible options for government action, the results of which are ranked according to the value of the calculated cost indicator and the indicator expressed in human lives. Conclusions. The choice of measures to restrict the spread of dangerous infections requires economically sound calculations of expected financial results. Calculations made for the case of COVID-19 show that strict quarantines are not always cost-effective. The offered method is applicable in most cases of dangerous infectious diseases.