The situation in the mortgage market and its impact on the effectiveness of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy

Subject. This article discusses the issues of assessing the impact of the introduction of preferential mortgage programmes on housing affordability for borrowers, as well as answering the question of what would be the weighted average mortgage lending rates in the absence of government subsidies for mortgages over a long period of time. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the state of the Russian mortgage market and assess the impact of the Bank of Russia's key rate decisions on it. Methods. For the study, we used a systems approach, statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling. Results. Based on the calculated index of mortgage lending availability, the article reveals that starting from the second half of 2021, availability in the secondary market has been mainly decreasing and is currently below the level of 2018–2021. Conclusions. The introduction of soft mortgage lending programmes has supported the housing construction industry, but their prolonged use has led to an increase in housing prices and a decrease in the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions, which is confirmed by the results of modeling using the Causal Impact algorithm. The availability of mortgage loans in the secondary market is at a fairly low level. At the same time, affordability in the primary market in the context of an increase in the key rate and changes/cancellation of preferential programmes is likely to continue to decline and approach the level before the introduction of Preferential Mortgage.