Is it Possible to Simply Forecast Fire Emissions Temporal Persistence?

Abstract This study presents the feasibility of forecasting fire emission fluxes within an operational modeling framework. The aim is to propose a methodology that combines the intensity of the fire detected, the air temperature, wind, and precipitation where the fire is located, to estimate the value of its intensity for the following days. Over the summer of 2022 in Europe, these estimates are compared with fire emission finally observed after the forecast. This is done using two different simulations with horizontal resolutions of 15 and 50 km. This enables us to discuss the best approach for minimizing forecast error and its sensitivity to the model resolution.