Geoeconomic fragmentation: What is at stake for energy transition in the Global North? Empirical evidence from panel-quantile-type estimation methods

This paper explores the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on the energy transition in the Global North, a region historically responsible for high greenhouse gas emissions yet crucial in addressing climate change. Recent policy shifts away from economic integration have raised concerns about the risks of geoeconomic fragmentation in climate policy discussions. Using panel quantile methods, the study analyzes how trade restrictions and other factors influence renewable energy consumption across 23 Global North countries from 1990 to 2020. The results show a dual effect: at lower to middle levels of renewable energy consumption, geoeconomic fragmentation positively influences energy transition. However, at higher levels, its impact turns negative, emphasizing the importance of economic integration and reduced trade barriers. These findings suggest that policies should be tailored to specific national conditions to balance geoeconomic shifts with sustainable energy goals. Ultimately, this research highlights the complex relationship between economic fragmentation and energy transition. • We examine geoeconomic fragmentation's impact on energy transition in the Global North using panel quantile analyses. • Overall, geoeconomic fragmentation has a mixed-effect on energy transition. • Geoeconomic fragmentation expedites energy transition in nations with low to moderate renewable energy use. • Geoeconomic integration expedites energy transition in nations with high renewable energy use. • Countries should tailor policy choices to their specific conditions.