Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US–China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era

Abstract As Great Power rivalry in the Asia–Pacific has intensified, Australia has widely come to be seen as a prototypical Balancer. By lending its modest weight in support of its long-time security ally, the US, it seeks to offset the challenges to the regional order posed by China. Developments like the AUKUS partnership struck between Australia, the US and the UK in 2021 are interpreted as confirmation of Australia’s contemporary international alignment. This paper, however, argues that post-AUKUS, Australia has not comprehensively abandoned its hedging strategy. This is reflected in a number of Canberra’s regional assessments and responses that diverge significantly from that of Washington. Similar to Beijing, Canberra believes that the era of US primacy has come to an end and the region is now multipolar. In framing a response, Canberra also broadly shares Beijing’s view that deeper economic integration not only advances domestic and regional prosperity, but also stability and security. Further conditioning Canberra’s response is a recognition that short of extreme scenarios, geopolitical “like-mindedness” counts for little in safeguarding local living standards. For China, Australia’s ongoing ambiguous alignment is a starting point for creative and professional diplomacy to unlock mutually beneficial outcomes. A second Trump administration in Washington is also likely to exacerbate the foreign policy divide between Canberra and Washington.