Satellite-Derived Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vegetation Cover and Its Driving Factors in the Three-River Headwaters Region from 2001 to 2022

To preserve ecological integrity and promote sustainable progress in the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), it is vital to understand the vegetation alteration patterns and the sensitivity of these patterns to climatic and anthropogenic influences. In this study, we retrieved the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) through the dimidiate pixel model, driven by MODIS reflectance data from 2001 to 2022, and analyzed its spatiotemporal variations and responses to climate variation and human activities via partial correlation and residual analyses. The results indicated that the FVC retrieval accuracy reached 84.2%. From 2001 to 2022, the growing season FVC displayed a fluctuating yet overall increasing trend, with an average growth rate of 0.23% per year (p < 0.01). The vegetation significantly improved in 50.72% of the TRHR, with the Yellow River source area exhibiting the most notable improvement. However, 67.42% of the TRHR experienced a transition from improvement to degradation in vegetation, indicating a pessimistic outlook for future changes. Partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature had a pronounced influence on the southwestern Yellow River Basin and the southern Yangtze River Basin, whereas precipitation had a substantial effect on the southwestern and northeastern sections of the Yellow River Basin. Additionally, residual analysis revealed that climate change served as the predominant factor behind the changes in the FVC, whereas the anthropogenic intervention contributed substantially to vegetation improvements in the northeastern and western portions of the Yellow River Basin. Our study provides scientific support for the construction of ecological security barriers and the harmonious development of humans and nature in the TRHR.