A Comment on: <i>“Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”</i>

Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by‐product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.

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Publication Details

Journal
Econometrica
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta21896
Primary Topic
Statistical Methods and Inference
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”

Thomas Mikosch, Frederik Vilandt, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Anders Rahbek
Econometrica
Statistical Methods and Inference
article

A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”

Thomas Mikosch, Frederik Vilandt, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Anders Rahbek
article en

Abstract

Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by‐product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.

EconometricaVol. 93(2)
University of Copenhagen (DK), University of Exeter (GB), University of Bologna (IT)
Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond
Openalex Percentile: Top 94%
Statistical Methods and Inference
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