Trends in the incidence of viral hepatitis A in the Republic of Tatarstan

A retrospective epidemiological analysis of the incidence of viral hepatitis A in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan (RT) has been carried out. The research materials were monthly and annual morbidity rates obtained from official state statistical reporting forms for 2009–2023 (forms No. 1 and No. 2 «Information on infectious and parasitic diseases», No. 5 «Information on preventive vaccinations»). The data was processed using Microsoft Office Excel 2010 and IBM SPSS Statistics programs. During the period from 2009 to 2023, there was a statistically significant downward trend in the incidence of viral hepatitis A. The dynamics of monthly rates of viral hepatitis A in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan was characterized by a pronounced winter-spring seasonality with a peak incidence in March. There is a statistically confirmed decrease in the incidence of viral hepatitis A among children aged 7 to 17 years, according to the results of forecasting for the next 3 years, a decrease in the incidence among this group is also expected. According to prognostic calculations, the most epidemiologically significant population group in terms of intensive indicators for the next 3 years will be unorganized children under 6 years of age. According to extensive indicators, the majority of cases will be detected among adults aged 30–49 years. Taking into account intensive and extensive indicators, a significant contribution to morbidity will be made by a group of adults aged 18–29 years.