Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets
Achieving the Paris Agreement's CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction goals heavily relies on enhancing carbon storage and sequestration in forests globally. Yet, the increasing vulnerability of carbon stored in forests to both climate change and human intervention is often neglected in current mitigation strategies. Our study explores modelled interactions between key emission sectors, indicating that accelerated decarbonization could meet climate objectives despite forest carbon losses due to disturbances. However, delaying action on forest carbon loss by just five years consistently doubles the additional mitigation costs and efforts across key sectors, regardless of the assessed forest disturbance rates. Moreover, these myopic responses to forest carbon loss are as stringent, or even more demanding, than immediate responses to twice the forest disturbance rate. Our results underline the urgent need to monitor and safeguard forests for the economic feasibility of the Paris Agreement's climate goals.
Authors
- Gunnar Luderer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155)
- Leon Merfort (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1704-6892)
- Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0336-6246)
- Jens Heinke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-0024)
- Nico Bauer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0211-4162)
- Florian Humpenöder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-9407)
- Hermann Lotze‐Campen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-5508)
- Michael Windisch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3085-9265)
- Jan Philipp Dietrich (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-6431)
- Alexander Popp (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986)
- Christoph Müller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550)
Institutions
- University of Kassel (DE)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Institute for Biomedical Engineering (CH)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-03-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 18.79
Funders
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme