Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development
Abstract The Pantanal, the largest worldwide continuous wetland, is considered a global hotspot of ecosystem services. Based on process‐based modeling, we assessed plausible scenarios of land use for the Brazilian Pantanal wetland and its surrounding highlands by the year 2050. The simulations indicate likely trajectories of land‐use change and the corresponding consequences for ecosystem services by looking specifically at soil loss, sediment yield, water quality, and carbon storage. The “Economy based on sustainable principles” scenario, in which landowners maintain native vegetation above Brazilian law requirements can lead to large reductions in soil losses and sediment yield (45%), whereas an increase in nutrients retention efficiency of soils (2%) and above‐ground carbon storage (7%) compared to the reference scenario of “Business as usual” (BAU). On the other hand, the scenario of “Accelerating anthropogenic changes” might lead to an increase in soil losses (8%) and sediment yield (11%), with a reduction in the efficiency of soil nutrients retention (3%) and carbon storage (15%). This study illustrates that the enhanced awareness of future potential impacts can pave the way for less harmful decisions in the mid‐term, toward the adoption of suitable strategies aligned with sustainable practices. Based on this, we discussed several initiatives that demonstrate the feasibility of moving toward most collective desirable scenarios.
Authors
- Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2806-0083)
- Fábio de Oliveira Roque (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5635-0622)
- R. Roscoe
- Fernando M. Resende (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8211-8269)
- Daniel Amorim Souza Centurião (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8372-6269)
- Alison Fairbrass (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4907-9683)
- Walfrido Moraes Tomás (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9395-7415)
- Rafael Morais Chiaravalloti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4271-3749)
- Sandra Aparecida Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4812-5825)
- Julio César Sampaio da Silva
- Letícia Couto Garcia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3081-8973)
- Letícia Larcher
- Angélica Guerra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6399-8507)
- Fábio Bolzan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0589-589X)
- Rômullo Oliveira Louzada (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7076-5282)
- André Valle Nunes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9120-0363)
- Cássio Bernardino
- Isabel M.D. Rosa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8257-1963)
- Ivan Bergier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1076-8617)
- Guellity Marcel
Institutions
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (BR)
- Bangor University (GB)
- Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (BR)
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (US)
- Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul (BR)
- Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte (BR)
- Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (BR)
- Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (BR)
- World Wildlife Fund (US)
- Fundação Museu do Homem Americano (BR)
- Centre for Sustainable Energy (GB)
- Instituto Sócioambiental (BR)
- International Institute for Sustainability (BR)
- Elabora Consultoria (Brazil) (BR)
- University College London (GB)
- James Cook University (AU)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Conservation Science and Practice
- Published
- 2025-03-25
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70012
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.32
Funders
- World Wildlife Fund
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico