Carbon Emissions Estimation and Forecasting in the Yangtze Economic Belt Construction Industry

This paper first constructs a carbon emissions calculation model for the construction industry based on the theory of building life cycle. It calculates and analyzes the carbon emissions from the construction industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020. Then, utilizing the chaotic search strategy optimized whale algorithm-based BP neural network model and panel data from 2005 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it conducts a predictive analysis of the carbon emissions in the construction industry under different development scenarios for the next 15 years. The study finds that there are significant differences in carbon emissions at different stages of construction. Under the baseline scenario, the construction industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is expected to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 as scheduled.