Embodied CO ₂ Mitigation Potential of Residential Buildings in China’s Urban Agglomerations: A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Ongoing urbanization in China increases the embodied CO2 emissions of residential buildings, challenging the country’s low-carbon transition. This study quantified the embodied CO2 emissions of residential buildings in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under three scenarios, namely, the business as usual (BAU) scenario, weak mitigation policy (WP) scenario, and strong mitigation policy (SP) scenario. The results show that the embodied CO2 footprint of newly built residential buildings under the BAU scenario was estimated at 60.8 million tons (Mt), 72.1 Mt, and 58.3 Mt in 2017, 2020, and 2025, respectively, which could be mitigated by 1.1%, 1.9%, and 3.1%, respectively, under the WP scenario. Furthermore, the embodied CO2 emissions would decrease to 52.6 Mt in 2025 under the SP scenario. This study identified the target cities for the decarbonization of residential buildings, providing a reference for low-carbon policymaking.