Long-Term Subsidence Assessment by LiCSBAS and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis in Kathmandu Valley

Rapid urbanization in Kathmandu Valley has strained its aquifer system, causing significant land subsidence. This study employs LiCSBAS for InSAR processing of Sentinel-1 data (2017–2024) to map subsidence-prone areas. The significant subsidence was found in northwest (Baluwatar, Samakhusi, and Manmaiju), southern (Gwarko, Patan, and Koteshwor), and northeast (Madhapur Thimi and Gathhaghar) regions with a maximum subsidence rate ~21 cm/yr. Subsidence has also expanded towards the outskirts and open areas in the eastern and southern parts of Lalitpur and Bhaktapur districts. Emerging hot spot analysis reveals a slowing subsidence trend in high-risk zones, possibly linked to the MWSP project reducing groundwater extraction from 58 MLD (2021) to 26 MLD (2024). Many subsidence-affected areas are located over the Kalimati and Gokarna Formations in highly urbanized areas. The key contributing factors to subsidence are soil compaction, excessive groundwater use, and urban sprawl encroaching open areas and recharge zones. These findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management and land-use planning to promote urban resilience.