Study on Transformation & Upgrading Effects of China's Manufacturing under Carbon peaking and Carbon neutrality Goals

Manufacturing serves as the cornerstone of national development, yet persistent issues like irrational energy structures and pollution urgently require improvement. The "dual carbon" goals represent a crucial strategic decision for sustainable development, directly propelling China's low-carbon transition. Utilizing panel data from 29 provinces (2009-2021), this study constructs a comprehensive manufacturing upgrading evaluation system through entropy weight method and assesses policy effects via generalized DID. Findings indicate: (1) The "dual carbon" goals significantly accelerate manufacturing upgrading, with local fiscal support demonstrating mediating effects; (2) Heterogeneous policy effects emerge across regions and resource-dependent areas. Policy recommendations include strengthening carbon governance, increasing R&D investment, optimizing fiscal mechanisms, and implementing region-specific strategies.