Global marine heatwave of 2023–24 was viewed as unlikely but not impossible given current warming

Global sea surface temperatures in 2023–24 exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented margin. Observation-based statistical models and climate models suggest that such jumps in ocean temperatures are unlikely to occur even with global warming but are almost impossible without it. In climate models, temperatures revert to the long-term warming trend in the years after such jumps. Models simulate record-breaking jumps in sea surface temperature but predict that temperatures will return to long-term warming trends.