Impact-driven spatial planning for future-proofing small island states: A scenario-based land model analysis in Curaçao

The sustainable development of small island states faces complex challenges exacerbated by their unique vulnerabilities and limited resource bases. Global change and pressures can be reflected locally in the use of land in these territories, with attendant socio-economic and environmental consequences borne by inhabitants and ecosystems. In this study, we propose an integrated approach combining participatory Bayesian networks, land use modelling, and multi-criteria impact analysis to explore three development pathways for 2050 constrained by alternative spatial planning options in Curaçao. Zoning regulations are shown here to limit sprawling built-up patterns and confine development to specific segments of the coast, reducing loss of rare vegetation by an average of 32 % and reducing added nutrient fluxes to the coastline by up to 22 %. Outcomes arising from unregulated development typically perform worst in terms of marginal environmental impacts per added value. Ultimately, this research contributes practical insights for decision makers grappling with the intricate challenges of spatial development in small island contexts, fostering planning debates and aiding in the navigation of intersectoral conflict. By elucidating the relationships between zoning regulations, socio-economic drivers, and environmental outcomes, the study supports informed decision-making towards achieving sustainable development goals amidst uncertainty and resource constraints. • Scenario modeling shows tradeoffs across spatial planning and development option. • Enforcing spatial regulations reduces tradeoffs across all development pathways. • Tourism growth leads to loss of rare vegetation and more coastal nutrient delivery. • Agricultural expansion results in more nutrient delivery to inland water bodies.