Urban mobility under armed conflict: shifts in mode preferences and public transport fare behaviors

Abstract This study delves into the profound transformations in mobility patterns resulting from armed conflict in Ukraine. Kharkiv City, the second-largest Ukrainian city, is considered, where residents continue to utilize public transport to fulfill critical daily functions, including commuting to workplaces and procuring essential goods. Despite the ongoing conflict, public transport remained a vital resource for maintaining socio-economic stability and ensuring personal well-being. This paper explores two main aspects: changes in the frequency of mode usage and fare-related aspects in multimodal networks. By utilizing the random utility maximization theory, the research identifies key factors driving shifts in mobility behaviors amidst the chaos of conflict. Behavioral data was collected via an online survey, yielding a final sample of 213 respondents. The analysis covers a multimodal transportation system that comprises metro, bus, trolleybus, tram, private car, bicycle, and walking modes. First, a list of ordered logit models for mode frequency usage was estimated to explore the changes in travel behaviors comparing peaceful and armed conflict times. Second, a mixed logit model was developed to examine the heterogeneity in individuals’ willingness to adopt various public transport fare plans. The study reveals striking insights: many individuals have significantly declined usage of metro and bus services, while private car utilization remained unchanged during armed conflict. Moreover, this research underscores the importance of fare-related aspects to be deployed in post-armed conflicted times. The findings emphasize the crucial role of multimodal transport plans, facilitating a shift from traditional single-trip tickets to integrated digital solutions within the public transport framework.