Accurate Prediction of Transmission Conductor Ice Cover Thickness Based on Ice Hazard Dynamics

Aiming at the problem of power grid accidents caused by ice disasters, this paper firstly analyzes the dynamic evolution process of ice glaze on transmission wires, and analyzes the influencing factors of ice glaze. The probability equation of the collision between supercooled water droplets and the cold wall of the wire is revealed, and the controlling effects of ambient temperature, air moisture content, wind speed, wind direction, rain and fog diameter and water film on the ice coating process of the wire are analyzed. The fluid mechanics software Fluent was used to conduct numerical simulation of the icing process of the conductor, and the influencing process of various influencing factors on the icing growth of the conductor was obtained. The wind speed and the diameter of supercooled water droplets were positively correlated with the collision coefficient, while the diameter of the conductor was negatively correlated with the collision coefficient, and the influence of various key factors on the amount of icing was studied. Based on the monitoring data of 500 kV line ice covering in Shengzhou City during the Southern ice disaster in January 2024, the ice covering thickness of transmission wires is predicted and verified with an accuracy of $\mathbf{9 2. 2 \%}$. The research results of this project can be applied in the actual ice-covering forecast, and will provide theoretical basis for China’s power grid ice-covering forecast.