ANALYSIS OF ERROR FACTORS IN REGIONAL GHG ESTIMATION BASED ON FUEL CONSUMPTION: FOCUS ON THE ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR

The climate crisis due to global warming is intensifying, and international cooperation to curb temperature rise is underway. South Korea has set GHG reduction targets, along with systems for implementation and assessment to achieve these goals. South Korea currently applies the IPCC-Tier2 method based on fuel consumption to estimate GHG emissions at the national level. Additionally, starting in 2024, it has begun estimating GHG emissions at the level of 17 local cities. However, applying the fuel consumption-based GHG estimation method at the local level can lead to errors, as it cannot accurately estimate GHG emissions from cross-regional traffic. Accordingly, this study conducted the following analyses to identify the error factors when applying the fuel consumption-based GHG estimation method at the local level. First, GHG emissions were estimated for 25 districts in Seoul, South Korea, based on fuel consumption and VKT (Vehicle Kilometers Traveled). After identifying the differences in emissions based on the estimation method, a regression analysis was conducted to determine the factors influencing these differences. The analysis showed that the errors in the fuel consumption-based GHG estimation method result from GHG emissions generated by commercial vehicles and freight trucks. Since commercial vehicles and freight trucks travel across multiple regions, it is likely that their refueling areas differ from their areas of operation, which may explain this outcome. This study analyzed the limitations and error factors when estimating GHG emissions at the local level based on fuel consumption. The analysis results suggest a necessity to develop methodologies for accurately estimating carbon emissions at the local level.