A Comparative Study of COVID-19 Dynamics in Major Turkish Cities Using Fractional Advection–Diffusion–Reaction Equations

Robust epidemiological models are essential for managing COVID-19, especially in diverse urban settings. In this study, we present a fractional advection–diffusion–reaction model to analyze COVID-19 spread in three major Turkish cities: Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir. The model employs a Caputo-type time-fractional derivative, with its order dynamically determined by the Hurst exponent, capturing the memory effects of disease transmission. A nonlinear reaction term models self-reinforcing viral spread, while a Gaussian forcing term simulates public health interventions with adjustable spatial and temporal parameters. We solve the resulting fractional PDE using an implicit finite difference scheme that ensures numerical stability. Calibration with weekly case data from February 2021 to March 2022 reveals that Ankara has a Hurst exponent of 0.4222, Istanbul 0.1932, and Izmir 0.6085, indicating varied persistence characteristics. Distribution fitting shows that a Weibull model best represents the data for Ankara and Istanbul, whereas a two-component normal mixture suits Izmir. Sensitivity analysis confirms that key parameters, including the fractional order and forcing duration, critically influence outcomes. These findings provide valuable insights for public health policy and urban planning, offering a tailored forecasting tool for epidemic management.