Scenario Generation Method of Annual Load Series Considering Electrification Rate and Meteorological Factors

Scenario generation of annual load series serves as an important basis for long-term power system planning. Traditional methods for load scenario generation usually disregard the influence of electrification rate and meteorological factors, making it difficult to adequately represent the future development trend of power load. Therefore, this paper proposes a new scenario generation method of annual load series. First, the annual load series is reclassified based on the monthly load characteristics including non-meteorologically sensitive load and meteorologically sensitive load. For non-meteorologically sensitive load, the scenarios of load series are generated through the construction of a joint probability model of daily load characteristic indicators and an optimization model. For meteorologically sensitive load, the total load is divided into base load and temperature-related load using the load decomposition theory. Peaks and curves of temperature-related load are modeled and then superimposed onto the base load to obtain the daily load series scenarios. The case study is conducted based on the annual load data of a provincial power grid in China which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.