India–United States Agricultural Trade Under the America‐First Agenda

ABSTRACT This article examines India–United States agricultural trade under the America‐First agenda, highlighting trade patterns, tariff structures, and potential impacts of United States trade policies. Total agricultural trade remains modest at $7 billion annually, with India imposing higher tariffs (average 39%) than the United States (5%). The study models two scenarios: a 25% United States tariff on steel and aluminum, which reduces India's exports by $1.32 billion and contracts GDP by $154 million, and broader United States tariffs affecting Canada, Mexico, and China, causing mixed impacts but leading to $1.56 billion GDP growth for India. Additional risks include tariff escalation, nontariff barriers, climate change, and shifting geopolitics. Potential areas of mutual benefits are identified.