Models for assessing risks of using cryptocurrency for fraud and criminal proceeds legalization

Introduction. In response to the urgent need of countries to implement effective measures aimed at preventing the criminal and terrorist use of the virtual assets sector, the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) has introduced global standards for virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs). In particular, the FATF noted that the rapid development, growth of functionality, expansion of use and the global, cross-border nature of virtual assets makes urgent action by countries to reduce the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing (hereinafter referred to as ML/TF) associated with transactions with virtual assets a priority task. The latest FATF findings indicate that countries continue to experience difficulties in meeting basic requirements, such as conducting risk assessments, adopting legislation to regulate virtual asset market operators, and conducting supervisory audits. Problem Statement. The improper use of virtual assets for money laundering and terrorist financing undermines economic stability, fosters the growth of the shadow economy, reduces budget revenues, and weakens the investment climate. To implement international FATF standards, particularly the VASP programs on ML/TF, it is necessary to develop mathematical models for assessing the risks of virtual asset misuse in money laundering operations. Purpose. To study mathematical models for assessing the risk of virtual assets being used for money laundering, terrorist financing, and other criminal activities. Methods. General scientific and specialized methods were used, including analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, classification, expert assessments, forecasting, and theoretical generalization. Conclusions and results. The proposed methodology makes it possible to mitigate these risks by supporting informed decision-making and enhancing regulatory frameworks. Strengthening legal structures for VA service providers, related to the turnover of virtual assets, and financial institutions will promote transparency, reduce vulnerabilities, and enable effective international cooperation to combat illicit financial activities. Advanced methodological approaches to assessing the risks of virtual assets in the field of combating money laundering and terrorist financing will refine global standards for ML/TF efforts and facilitate the integration of cutting-edge technologies for monitoring financial flows, contributing to economic stability and security.