House Prices and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of Morocco

In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing housing prices in Morocco. Bayesian estimation over the period 2007Q2–2017Q2 of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model allowed us to reveal a significant impact of the increase in policy interest rates on the prices of residential goods. Indeed, the implementation of a restrictive monetary policy in Morocco will drive the prices of this type of asset downward. Despite this empirical finding, the historical decomposition of shocks impacting the inflation of residential property prices shows that interest rates explain only a small portion of the variations in housing prices in this country. Our results also indicate that an increase in the share of borrowers extends the time required for economic and financial variables to return to their equilibrium state. This is a sign of the potential dangers of fueling housing bubbles through credit booms.